The truth is that the Linux distributions are very similar, so this should not be as much of a problem as you might imagine. It is always easier to upgrade rather than re-install, of course, but since you're talking about one machine, I wouldn't worry about it until you're ready for newer features down the road.
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Since Mandriva has lost market share, you are likely to find that more applications are written and tested for Red Hat and SuSE, however.
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